The PowerBook is designed to answer a practical question: what is an NFL team worth today, given the players, roles and conditions most likely to exist when it plays?
1. COLLECT VERIFIED INFORMATION
We begin with reliable team, league and reputable reporting. Rumor, routine coach-speak and unverified social posts may create a watch item, but they do not move the official number.
2. ESTABLISH THE BASELINE
A development is measured against the player role, replacement quality, expected availability and the team value already represented in the current rating. This prevents double counting.
3. TEST GAME RELEVANCE
We ask whether the information materially changes expected strength for the relevant week. A famous name can be newsworthy without changing the current spread value.
4. QUANTIFY AND CONTROL
Material changes are estimated in Power Rating units and spread impact, labeled temporary or permanent, assigned confidence and placed through the controlled adjustment workflow.
5. AUDIT BEFORE THE MASTER MOVE
Recommendations are not automatically official ratings. The Master value changes only after the ledger, team totals and audit agree. This keeps the published analysis explainable and reduces reactionary moves.
NO MOVE IS A REAL DECISION
A 0.00 verdict is not empty analysis. It means the current evidence does not justify changing the team’s expected value yet. The file remains open when future information could change that conclusion.